Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Seguin 54.2% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 61.8%
Defensive zone
Seguin 57.5%
Neutral zone
Matthews 53.3%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Matthews
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Matthews
Seguin
Last 6: Matthews 1-5 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Matthews
Seguin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Matthews
Seguin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
3
Matthews
Seguin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
55.0% (713)
-2.3%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
56.7% (104)
-22.1%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
47.2% (53)
+27.8%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Matthews is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (388).
Matthews shoots left. Seguin is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Matthews
Seguin
Home
54.8% (515)
56.2% (443)
Away
50.2% (534)
53.2% (427)
By Period
Matthews
Seguin
P1
54.4%
54.2%
P2
50.4%
52.9%
P3
51.8%
57.1%
OT
75.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 17:36 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 09:08 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 12:57 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 10:36 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |