Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Goodrow on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Goodrow wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Goodrow 46.5% vs Larkin 54.1% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 87.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 61.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 68.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 69.2%
30.8%
69.2%
Goodrow
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Goodrow
Larkin
Last 6: Goodrow 4-2 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Goodrow
1
0
Goodrow
Larkin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Goodrow
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Goodrow
2
1
Goodrow
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Goodrow
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (472)
53.6% (886)
-6.8%
Power Play
40.0% (25)
59.3% (317)
-19.3%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (96)
48.7% (152)
-6.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Goodrow is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (333).
Goodrow shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Home / Away
Goodrow
Larkin
Home
44.3% (314)
56.6% (700)
Away
47.7% (279)
52.1% (655)
By Period
Goodrow
Larkin
P1
46.8%
55.4%
P2
44.0%
54.7%
P3
47.1%
52.7%
OT
40.0%
59.1%
Final 5 min
43.2%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Goodrow
52.0%▲
39.5%
45.9%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2023 | 3 | 14:00 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 3 | 03:12 | Defensive | Barclay Goodrow |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 2 | 08:26 | Offensive | Barclay Goodrow |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 2 | 08:18 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 08:28 | Neutral | Barclay Goodrow |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 08:13 | Neutral | Barclay Goodrow |