Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Goodrow on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Goodrow wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Goodrow 53.5% vs Larkin 55.0% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 82.3%
Defensive zone
Goodrow 65.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 52.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 69.7%
30.3%
69.7%
Goodrow
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Goodrow
Larkin
Last 7: Goodrow 4-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
3
Goodrow
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Goodrow
3
0
Goodrow
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Goodrow
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (544)
55.9% (943)
-0.4%
Power Play
33.3% (6)
57.4% (244)
-24.1%
Penalty Kill
44.6% (74)
46.2% (106)
-1.6%
On power play, Larkin has a +24.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Goodrow is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (395).
Goodrow shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Home / Away
Goodrow
Larkin
Home
57.2% (332)
56.0% (654)
Away
50.3% (292)
54.8% (639)
By Period
Goodrow
Larkin
P1
50.8%
54.4%
P2
59.5%
55.9%
P3
51.8%
55.2%
OT
50.0%
64.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Goodrow
52.0%▲
39.5%
54.0%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 13:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 12:55 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 10:14 | Neutral | Barclay Goodrow |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barclay Goodrow |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 2 | 13:13 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 2 | 03:57 | Offensive | Barclay Goodrow |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 05:58 | Neutral | Barclay Goodrow |