Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Goodrow wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Goodrow 46.5% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 68.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 64.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 60.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 63.9%
36.1%
63.9%
Goodrow
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Goodrow
O'Reilly
Last 7: Goodrow 4-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Goodrow
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Goodrow
2
0
Goodrow
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Goodrow
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Goodrow
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (472)
56.1% (690)
-9.3%
Power Play
40.0% (25)
64.6% (96)
-24.6%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (96)
45.9% (109)
-3.2%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Goodrow is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (333).
Goodrow shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Goodrow
O'Reilly
Home
44.3% (314)
58.3% (408)
Away
47.7% (279)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Goodrow
O'Reilly
P1
46.8%
57.7%
P2
44.0%
54.8%
P3
47.1%
55.2%
OT
40.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
43.2%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Goodrow
52.0%▲
39.5%
45.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 03:09 | Neutral | Barclay Goodrow |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 12:30 | Defensive | Barclay Goodrow |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 13:55 | Defensive | Barclay Goodrow |
| Dec 5, 2022 | 2 | 13:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 5, 2022 | 2 | 04:51 | Offensive | Barclay Goodrow |
| Dec 5, 2022 | 2 | 01:07 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 5, 2022 | 1 | 16:32 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |