Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Goodrow 50.3% vs Hertl 54.2% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 55.7%
Defensive zone
Goodrow 82.6%
Neutral zone
Goodrow 66.7%
Result
Barclay Goodrow favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
Goodrow
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Goodrow
Hertl
Last 10: Goodrow 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Goodrow
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Goodrow
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Goodrow
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Goodrow
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (3,091)
53.8% (8,268)
-1.5%
Power Play
46.7% (180)
59.3% (1,975)
-12.6%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (940)
46.3% (806)
-1.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Goodrow is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,655).
Goodrow shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Goodrow
Hertl
Home
51.9% (2,109)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
48.8% (2,102)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Goodrow
Hertl
P1
50.5%
53.6%
P2
49.2%
54.1%
P3
51.3%
55.3%
OT
35.7%
46.5%
Final 5 min
50.3%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Goodrow
52.0%▲
39.5%
50.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:52 | Defensive | Barclay Goodrow |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 05:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 3, 2023 | 2 | 04:06 | Neutral | Barclay Goodrow |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | Barclay Goodrow |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 02:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 02:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 19:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 15:55 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 2 | 12:14 | Neutral | Barclay Goodrow |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 2 | 06:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |