Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Goodrow wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Goodrow 46.5% vs Hertl 54.5% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Goodrow 63.0%
Defensive zone
Goodrow 85.8%
Neutral zone
Goodrow 71.1%
Result
Barclay Goodrow favored at 73.7%
73.7%
26.3%
Goodrow
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Goodrow
Hertl
Last 5: Goodrow 1-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Goodrow
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Goodrow
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Goodrow
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Goodrow
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (472)
54.1% (1,117)
-7.3%
Power Play
40.0% (25)
59.8% (296)
-19.8%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (96)
34.4% (32)
+8.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Goodrow is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (333).
Goodrow shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Goodrow
Hertl
Home
44.3% (314)
54.3% (709)
Away
47.7% (279)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Goodrow
Hertl
P1
46.8%
51.6%
P2
44.0%
53.6%
P3
47.1%
58.6%
OT
40.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
43.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Goodrow
52.0%▲
39.5%
45.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | Barclay Goodrow |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 02:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 02:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 19:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 15:55 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |