Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 51.9%). Look for Hayton on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Hayton wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.0% vs McDavid 51.8% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 64.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 58.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 51.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
Hayton
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Hayton
McDavid
Last 8: Hayton 7-1 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayton
McDavid
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
McDavid
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
4
0
Hayton
McDavid
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (937)
51.5% (889)
-0.5%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
63.9% (36)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (129)
51.2% (86)
-6.2%
On power play, McDavid has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Hayton is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (745).
Hayton shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Home / Away
Hayton
McDavid
Home
54.6% (639)
50.7% (513)
Away
47.2% (591)
53.2% (498)
By Period
Hayton
McDavid
P1
50.9%
52.3%
P2
52.7%
51.6%
P3
49.9%
51.7%
OT
41.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.6%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
51.1%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2023 | 3 | 00:40 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 27, 2023 | 2 | 19:17 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 27, 2023 | 1 | 11:24 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 22, 2023 | 3 | 13:20 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 22, 2023 | 2 | 19:18 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 22, 2023 | 2 | 03:21 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 22, 2023 | 1 | 16:35 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |