Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 53.8% vs McDavid 47.9% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Hayton leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayton 57.4%
Defensive zone
Hayton 64.9%
Neutral zone
Hayton 66.0%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Hayton
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Hayton
McDavid
Last 10: Hayton 5-5 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
3
Hayton
McDavid
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
McDavid
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
3
2
Hayton
McDavid
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (817)
47.7% (715)
+4.9%
Power Play
63.3% (139)
51.9% (52)
+11.4%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (64)
22.2% (9)
+30.9%
On penalty kill, Hayton has a +30.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Hayton is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (684).
Hayton shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
Home / Away
Hayton
McDavid
Home
53.9% (516)
47.3% (387)
Away
54.4% (504)
48.1% (389)
By Period
Hayton
McDavid
P1
55.1%
47.6%
P2
55.0%
50.0%
P3
51.7%
45.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
54.1%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 07:47 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:36 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 1 | 16:56 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 1 | 05:45 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 04:53 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 00:29 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 06:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 02:54 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 03:42 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:17 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |