Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 49.8% vs McDavid 51.0% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 64.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 51.8%
Neutral zone
Hayton 51.8%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Hayton
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Hayton
McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
1
Hayton
McDavid
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
McDavid
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (318)
51.6% (803)
-1.3%
Power Play
50.7% (67)
50.0% (40)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
42.4% (33)
36.4% (22)
+6.0%
On penalty kill, Hayton has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Hayton is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Hayton shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
Home / Away
Hayton
McDavid
Home
47.4% (171)
51.8% (415)
Away
51.4% (247)
50.4% (450)
By Period
Hayton
McDavid
P1
49.6%
47.5%
P2
50.0%
51.6%
P3
49.0%
55.5%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.8%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
49.8%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 04:28 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 06:17 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 06:07 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |