Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Hayton wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.4% vs McDavid 47.9% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 53.5%
Defensive zone
Hayton 78.1%
Neutral zone
Hayton 72.7%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 75.4%
75.4%
24.6%
Hayton
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Hayton
McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
McDavid
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
McDavid
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (646)
47.5% (650)
+5.0%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
48.6% (72)
+8.2%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
46.5% (43)
-9.7%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Hayton is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (474).
Hayton shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Home / Away
Hayton
McDavid
Home
56.9% (432)
50.2% (400)
Away
47.4% (344)
44.7% (365)
By Period
Hayton
McDavid
P1
53.1%
47.5%
P2
50.3%
48.6%
P3
55.4%
46.7%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
59.5%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 10:29 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:25 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |