Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayton on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayton wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.0% vs Hayes 49.5% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 51.1%
Defensive zone
Hayton 79.2%
Neutral zone
Hayton 59.9%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 69.2%
69.2%
30.8%
Hayton
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Hayton
Hayes
Last 5: Hayton 4-1 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
1
Hayton
Hayes
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
3
0
Hayton
Hayes
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (937)
48.5% (557)
+2.5%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
53.3% (107)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (129)
58.3% (12)
-13.3%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Hayton is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (745).
Hayton shoots left. Hayes is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Home / Away
Hayton
Hayes
Home
54.6% (639)
50.8% (313)
Away
47.2% (591)
48.2% (363)
By Period
Hayton
Hayes
P1
50.9%
52.3%
P2
52.7%
47.7%
P3
49.9%
48.4%
OT
41.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.6%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
51.1%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 17:37 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 17:31 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 16:06 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 10:21 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 00:39 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |