Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +16.9% FO% edge overall. Hayton wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.4% vs Hayes 42.7% (+16.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 53.5%
Defensive zone
Hayton 58.5%
Neutral zone
Hayton 50.9%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
Hayton
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Hayton
Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
1
Hayton
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (646)
31.9% (91)
+20.6%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
64.3% (14)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
0.0% (1)
+36.8%
On penalty kill, Hayton has a +36.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Hayton is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (474).
Hayton shoots left. Hayes is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (58).
Home / Away
Hayton
Hayes
Home
56.9% (432)
30.6% (49)
Away
47.4% (344)
40.4% (57)
By Period
Hayton
Hayes
P1
53.1%
22.9%
P2
50.3%
40.0%
P3
55.4%
44.4%
Final 5 min
59.5%
30.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
35.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 13:29 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |