Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.7% vs 52.0%). Look for Hayton on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Hayton wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.4% vs Duchene 51.6% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 55.2%
Defensive zone
Hayton 60.1%
Neutral zone
Hayton 59.4%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 59.6%
59.6%
40.4%
Hayton
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Hayton
Duchene
Last 6: Hayton 5-1 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
3
1
Hayton
Duchene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (646)
51.2% (324)
+1.3%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
60.4% (53)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
16.7% (6)
+20.1%
On penalty kill, Hayton has a +20.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Hayton is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (474).
Hayton shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Home / Away
Hayton
Duchene
Home
56.9% (432)
51.6% (182)
Away
47.4% (344)
52.2% (201)
By Period
Hayton
Duchene
P1
53.1%
49.6%
P2
50.3%
56.2%
P3
55.4%
48.6%
OT
25.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 00:05 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 18:18 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 15:34 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |