Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Hayton wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.0% vs Duchene 52.1% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 81.7%
Defensive zone
Hayton 76.4%
Neutral zone
Hayton 53.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Hayton
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Hayton
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayton
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (937)
53.9% (193)
-2.9%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
49.2% (65)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (129)
100.0% (1)
-55.0%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +55.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Hayton is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (745).
Hayton shoots left. Duchene is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Hayton
Duchene
Home
54.6% (639)
54.9% (113)
Away
47.2% (591)
51.4% (146)
By Period
Hayton
Duchene
P1
50.9%
54.9%
P2
52.7%
52.7%
P3
49.9%
51.9%
OT
41.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.6%
60.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
51.1%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 18:26 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 14:22 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 2 | 01:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 13, 2023 | 1 | 10:30 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |