Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 53.8% vs Duchene 52.1% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 59.5%
Defensive zone
Duchene 58.5%
Neutral zone
Duchene 58.0%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 58.5%
41.5%
58.5%
Hayton
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Hayton
Duchene
Last 6: Hayton 0-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Hayton
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
4
Hayton
Duchene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (817)
53.0% (723)
-0.4%
Power Play
63.3% (139)
49.5% (101)
+13.8%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (64)
43.8% (16)
+9.3%
On power play, Hayton has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Hayton is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (684).
Hayton shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
Hayton
Duchene
Home
53.9% (516)
54.9% (408)
Away
54.4% (504)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Hayton
Duchene
P1
55.1%
52.5%
P2
55.0%
51.7%
P3
51.7%
53.6%
OT
69.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.8%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
54.1%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 14:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 15:51 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 13:18 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 12:41 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 10:12 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |