Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayton on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.1% vs Duchene 54.1% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Hayton leads 11-8 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 77.0%
Defensive zone
Duchene 56.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 65.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
Hayton
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
8
(19 meetings)
11
8
Hayton
Duchene
Last 10: Hayton 5-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
3
Hayton
Duchene
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
6
0
Hayton
Duchene
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
5
Hayton
Duchene
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (3,479)
53.9% (10,396)
-3.1%
Power Play
56.7% (594)
56.9% (1,665)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (374)
49.1% (468)
-3.9%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Hayton is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,799).
Hayton shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Hayton
Duchene
Home
52.9% (2,268)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
49.4% (2,179)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Hayton
Duchene
P1
52.0%
54.5%
P2
51.4%
54.5%
P3
49.9%
53.4%
OT
58.1%
56.3%
Final 5 min
51.6%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 00:05 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 18:18 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 15:34 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 14:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 15:51 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 13:18 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 12:41 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 10:12 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 18:26 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 14:22 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 2 | 01:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 13, 2023 | 1 | 10:30 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:32 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |