Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Hayton wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.4% vs Paul 53.3% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 51.0%
Defensive zone
Hayton 52.0%
Neutral zone
Hayton 58.3%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Hayton
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Hayton
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Hayton
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (646)
53.2% (327)
-0.7%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
61.4% (57)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
50.0% (32)
-13.2%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Hayton is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (474).
Hayton shoots left. Paul is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Hayton
Paul
Home
56.9% (432)
54.6% (183)
Away
47.4% (344)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Hayton
Paul
P1
53.1%
56.3%
P2
50.3%
54.8%
P3
55.4%
52.4%
OT
25.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
59.5%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 07:05 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 06:59 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |