Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 53.8% vs Kelly 43.9% (+11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 82.6%
Defensive zone
Kelly 71.4%
Neutral zone
Hayton 50.5%
Result
Parker Kelly favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
Hayton
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Hayton
Kelly
Last 8: Hayton 4-4 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
Kelly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
3
Hayton
Kelly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hayton
Kelly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (817)
44.8% (556)
+7.8%
Power Play
63.3% (139)
0.0% (2)
+63.3%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (64)
36.8% (144)
+16.3%
On power play, Hayton has a +63.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Hayton is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (684).
Hayton shoots left. Kelly is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (481).
Home / Away
Hayton
Kelly
Home
53.9% (516)
44.8% (368)
Away
54.4% (504)
41.0% (334)
By Period
Hayton
Kelly
P1
55.1%
46.7%
P2
55.0%
48.0%
P3
51.7%
34.8%
OT
69.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
54.1%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 16:31 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 05:06 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 09:52 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 06:07 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3 | 06:28 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 11:51 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 13:35 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 09:54 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |