Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +16.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Hayton wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.4% vs Kelly 41.6% (+16.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 59.8%
Defensive zone
Kelly 62.1%
Neutral zone
Kelly 62.2%
Result
Parker Kelly favored at 61.6%
38.4%
61.6%
Hayton
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Hayton
Kelly
Last 8: Hayton 3-5 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayton
Kelly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayton
Kelly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
3
Hayton
Kelly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (646)
36.3% (157)
+16.2%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
0.0% (1)
+56.8%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
45.5% (11)
-8.7%
On power play, Hayton has a +56.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Hayton is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (474).
Hayton shoots left. Kelly is 37.7% vs left-shot opponents (106).
Home / Away
Hayton
Kelly
Home
56.9% (432)
35.9% (78)
Away
47.4% (344)
37.4% (91)
By Period
Hayton
Kelly
P1
53.1%
34.3%
P2
50.3%
36.0%
P3
55.4%
40.4%
Final 5 min
59.5%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
36.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 12:20 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 09:13 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 13:49 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 13:40 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 09:16 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 06:41 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 01:20 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 01:06 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |