Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayton on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.1% vs Kelly 41.8% (+10.3%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayton 70.4%
Defensive zone
Kelly 67.7%
Neutral zone
Kelly 54.5%
Result
Parker Kelly favored at 51.8%
48.2%
51.8%
Hayton
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
9
(17 meetings)
8
9
Hayton
Kelly
Last 10: Hayton 3-7 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
4
1
Hayton
Kelly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
4
Hayton
Kelly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
4
Hayton
Kelly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (3,479)
41.9% (756)
+8.9%
Power Play
56.7% (594)
0.0% (3)
+56.7%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (374)
37.2% (172)
+8.0%
On power play, Hayton has a +56.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Hayton is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,799).
Hayton shoots left. Kelly is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (626).
Home / Away
Hayton
Kelly
Home
52.9% (2,268)
42.5% (475)
Away
49.4% (2,179)
39.3% (456)
By Period
Hayton
Kelly
P1
52.0%
42.4%
P2
51.4%
44.7%
P3
49.9%
35.7%
OT
58.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.6%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 12:20 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 09:13 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 13:49 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 13:40 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 09:16 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 06:41 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 01:20 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 01:06 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 16:31 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 05:06 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 09:52 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 06:07 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3 | 06:28 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 11:51 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 13:35 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 09:54 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 1, 2024 | 2 | 04:04 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |