Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.7% vs 51.9%). Look for Hayton on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.4% vs Thomas 51.7% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayton 51.8%
Defensive zone
Hayton 51.9%
Neutral zone
Hayton 50.1%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
Hayton
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Hayton
Thomas
Last 10: Hayton 7-3 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
5
Hayton
Thomas
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
5
1
Hayton
Thomas
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Hayton
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (646)
50.1% (615)
+2.4%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
62.2% (98)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
52.6% (114)
-15.8%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Hayton is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (302).
Hayton shoots left. Thomas is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Hayton
Thomas
Home
56.9% (432)
51.9% (374)
Away
47.4% (344)
51.9% (453)
By Period
Hayton
Thomas
P1
53.1%
49.2%
P2
50.3%
55.3%
P3
55.4%
50.6%
OT
25.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
59.5%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2026 | 2 | 06:39 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 1 | 01:19 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 18:34 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 06:17 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 19:32 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 11:47 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 07:22 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 03:28 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:11 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 12:03 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 07:26 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 03:46 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 06:21 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:18 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |