Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayton on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.3% vs Stamkos 56.5% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 71.3%
Defensive zone
Hayton 53.0%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 59.2%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Hayton
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Hayton
Stamkos
Last 7: Hayton 4-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayton
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
3
1
Hayton
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Hayton
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (647)
57.6% (439)
-5.2%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
58.6% (111)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
50.0% (10)
-13.2%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Hayton is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (302).
Hayton shoots left. Stamkos is 59.4% vs left-shot opponents (424).
Home / Away
Hayton
Stamkos
Home
56.8% (433)
55.3% (255)
Away
47.4% (344)
59.7% (305)
By Period
Hayton
Stamkos
P1
52.8%
58.6%
P2
50.3%
54.4%
P3
55.4%
60.7%
OT
25.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
59.5%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
Stamkos
72.0%▲
61.5%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 00:14 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:33 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:20 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:11 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |