Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayton on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.7% vs Stamkos 54.4% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 62.8%
Defensive zone
Hayton 64.7%
Neutral zone
Hayton 50.8%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 54.9%
54.9%
45.1%
Hayton
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Hayton
Stamkos
Last 7: Hayton 4-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayton
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
3
1
Hayton
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Hayton
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (628)
55.8% (339)
-2.9%
Power Play
57.3% (110)
53.3% (90)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
62.5% (8)
-25.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Hayton is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (302).
Hayton shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Hayton
Stamkos
Home
57.9% (413)
53.4% (208)
Away
47.4% (344)
57.2% (229)
By Period
Hayton
Stamkos
P1
53.4%
55.3%
P2
50.9%
52.5%
P3
55.6%
58.9%
OT
33.3%
62.5%
Final 5 min
59.0%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
54.0%▬
53.0%
53.1%
Stamkos
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 00:14 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:33 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:20 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:11 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |