Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayton on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.4% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 68.1%
Defensive zone
Hayton 63.4%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 54.4%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Hayton
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Hayton
Stamkos
Last 7: Hayton 4-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayton
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
3
1
Hayton
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Hayton
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (646)
56.1% (342)
-3.6%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
53.3% (92)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
62.5% (8)
-25.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Hayton is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (302).
Hayton shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Hayton
Stamkos
Home
56.9% (432)
53.4% (208)
Away
47.4% (344)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Hayton
Stamkos
P1
53.1%
55.6%
P2
50.3%
52.8%
P3
55.4%
59.1%
OT
25.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
59.5%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 00:14 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:33 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:20 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:11 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |