Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayton on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayton wins 57.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 53.8% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 56.3%
Defensive zone
Hayton 76.1%
Neutral zone
Hayton 62.9%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 66.2%
66.2%
33.8%
Hayton
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Hayton
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
1
Hayton
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (817)
49.3% (670)
+3.3%
Power Play
63.3% (139)
53.7% (121)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (64)
33.3% (3)
+19.8%
On penalty kill, Hayton has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Hayton is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Hayton shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Hayton
Stamkos
Home
53.9% (516)
54.0% (400)
Away
54.4% (504)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Hayton
Stamkos
P1
55.1%
48.6%
P2
55.0%
54.5%
P3
51.7%
45.4%
OT
69.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
54.1%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |