Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Coleman on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Coleman wins 42.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coleman 44.8% vs Nelson 44.4% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 60.6%
Defensive zone
Coleman 50.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Coleman
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Coleman
Nelson
Last 9: Coleman 5-4 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
3
Coleman
Nelson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coleman
3
0
Coleman
Nelson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Coleman
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coleman
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (196)
43.0% (688)
+1.4%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
54.8% (42)
-21.5%
Penalty Kill
29.6% (27)
44.3% (61)
-14.7%
On power play, Nelson has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Coleman is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (150).
Coleman shoots left. Nelson is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (505).
Home / Away
Coleman
Nelson
Home
42.6% (108)
41.9% (391)
Away
42.4% (118)
45.5% (400)
By Period
Coleman
Nelson
P1
44.6%
47.1%
P2
42.7%
43.0%
P3
40.3%
40.9%
Final 5 min
39.6%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coleman
32.0%▼
45.5%
42.5%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
43.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2017 | 3 | 11:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 2 | 13:55 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 2 | 10:04 | Offensive | Blake Coleman |
| Mar 31, 2017 | 3 | 16:46 | Neutral | Blake Coleman |
| Mar 31, 2017 | 3 | 11:23 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2017 | 3 | 05:33 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Mar 31, 2017 | 2 | 16:12 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Mar 31, 2017 | 2 | 10:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2017 | 1 | 13:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |