Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.9% vs 45.2%). Coleman wins 37.8% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coleman 47.9% vs Nelson 45.8% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coleman 51.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 63.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.9%
Result
Blake Coleman favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
Coleman
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Coleman
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coleman
1
0
Coleman
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coleman
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (61)
46.1% (735)
+1.4%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
34.5% (29)
+15.5%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (4)
30.4% (23)
-30.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +30.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Coleman is 37.8% vs left-shot opponents (45).
Coleman shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Coleman
Nelson
Home
41.0% (39)
48.7% (419)
Away
50.0% (30)
41.3% (368)
By Period
Coleman
Nelson
P1
33.3%
44.6%
P2
52.6%
47.3%
P3
52.2%
43.0%
Final 5 min
35.7%
39.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coleman
32.0%▼
45.5%
44.9%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 04:52 | Offensive | Blake Coleman |