Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Coleman on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Coleman wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coleman 43.9% vs Nelson 47.8% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 84.0%
Defensive zone
Coleman 53.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
Coleman
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Coleman
Nelson
Last 5: Coleman 3-2 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Coleman
Nelson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coleman
2
1
Coleman
Nelson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coleman
1
0
Coleman
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coleman
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (145)
47.4% (1,020)
-1.9%
Power Play
33.3% (9)
51.5% (163)
-18.2%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (108)
42.9% (63)
-5.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Coleman is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (137).
Coleman shoots left. Nelson is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Home / Away
Coleman
Nelson
Home
49.6% (129)
51.0% (641)
Away
33.8% (133)
44.1% (605)
By Period
Coleman
Nelson
P1
39.5%
48.2%
P2
40.2%
48.1%
P3
45.6%
46.9%
Final 5 min
39.6%
44.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coleman
32.0%▼
45.5%
41.6%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2019 | 3 | 02:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 2 | 06:45 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Jan 17, 2019 | 1 | 13:40 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 08:23 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 01:13 | Neutral | Blake Coleman |