Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Lizotte on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lizotte wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 51.0% vs Larkin 54.1% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 70.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 56.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 51.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 58.0%
42.0%
58.0%
Lizotte
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Lizotte
Larkin
Last 7: Lizotte 4-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Lizotte
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
2
0
Lizotte
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lizotte
2
1
Lizotte
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (707)
53.6% (886)
-1.1%
Power Play
46.2% (13)
59.3% (317)
-13.1%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (87)
48.7% (152)
-7.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Lizotte is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Lizotte shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Larkin
Home
51.4% (383)
56.6% (700)
Away
50.9% (424)
52.1% (655)
By Period
Lizotte
Larkin
P1
48.8%
55.4%
P2
51.0%
54.7%
P3
53.5%
52.7%
Final 5 min
48.3%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
51.2%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 17:32 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 10:41 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 06:23 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 09:58 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2 | 05:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |