Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Lizotte on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.4% vs Larkin 52.7% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 18-15 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 57.4%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 67.3%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 60.0%
Result
Blake Lizotte favored at 60.0%
60.0%
40.0%
Lizotte
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
18
(33 meetings)
15
18
Lizotte
Larkin
Last 10: Lizotte 3-7 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
5
Lizotte
Larkin
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
10
4
Lizotte
Larkin
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
9
Lizotte
Larkin
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (3,068)
51.7% (9,019)
-0.1%
Power Play
48.1% (81)
58.5% (2,125)
-10.4%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (437)
50.2% (1,122)
-7.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Lizotte is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,373).
Lizotte shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Larkin
Home
49.5% (1,840)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
51.4% (1,746)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
Lizotte
Larkin
P1
48.0%
52.7%
P2
52.3%
53.1%
P3
50.5%
52.1%
OT
75.0%
58.4%
Final 5 min
50.2%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.4%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 01:02 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:07 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 10:44 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 17:46 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 04:08 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 13:17 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 19:47 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 13:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 02:15 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 17:32 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 10:41 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 06:23 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 09:58 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2 | 05:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 2 | 14:17 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 2 | 03:09 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 3 | 05:42 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |