Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Lizotte on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.0% vs Larkin 52.4% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 86.2%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 69.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 58.0%
Result
Blake Lizotte favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Lizotte
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lizotte
Larkin
Last 5: Lizotte 3-2 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lizotte
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lizotte
2
1
Lizotte
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (342)
51.7% (878)
+1.2%
Power Play
25.0% (4)
58.5% (246)
-33.5%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (130)
48.2% (166)
-5.1%
On power play, Larkin has a +33.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Lizotte is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Lizotte shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Larkin
Home
44.2% (242)
52.4% (647)
Away
56.0% (234)
52.7% (643)
By Period
Lizotte
Larkin
P1
49.6%
52.2%
P2
46.9%
53.1%
P3
52.6%
51.7%
OT
100.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
48.0%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.0%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 01:02 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:07 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 10:44 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 17:46 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 04:08 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |