Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.4% vs Duchene 54.1% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 58.2%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 77.4%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 62.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Lizotte
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Lizotte
Duchene
Last 8: Lizotte 3-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
5
Lizotte
Duchene
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lizotte
1
0
Lizotte
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (3,068)
53.9% (10,396)
-2.3%
Power Play
48.1% (81)
56.9% (1,665)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (437)
49.1% (468)
-6.8%
On power play, Duchene has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Lizotte is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,373).
Lizotte shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Duchene
Home
49.5% (1,840)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
51.4% (1,746)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Lizotte
Duchene
P1
48.0%
54.5%
P2
52.3%
54.5%
P3
50.5%
53.4%
OT
75.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
50.2%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 18:18 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 17:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 07:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 00:22 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 14:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 13:09 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 09:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 16:10 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |