Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Lizotte wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 51.0% vs Duchene 52.1% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 73.0%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 78.0%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 54.7%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 67.5%
32.5%
67.5%
Lizotte
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Lizotte
Duchene
Last 5: Lizotte 1-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
4
Lizotte
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lizotte
1
0
Lizotte
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (707)
53.9% (193)
-1.4%
Power Play
46.2% (13)
49.2% (65)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (87)
100.0% (1)
-58.6%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +58.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Lizotte is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Lizotte shoots left. Duchene is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Duchene
Home
51.4% (383)
54.9% (113)
Away
50.9% (424)
51.4% (146)
By Period
Lizotte
Duchene
P1
48.8%
54.9%
P2
51.0%
52.7%
P3
53.5%
51.9%
Final 5 min
48.3%
60.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
60.0%▲
55.0%
51.2%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 07:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 00:22 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 14:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 13:09 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 09:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |