Blake Lizotte vs Nathan MacKinnon
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Blake Lizotte holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Lizotte wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.8% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 82.6%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 64.9%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 51.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 82.6%
17.4%
82.6%
Lizotte
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Lizotte
MacKinnon
Last 5: Lizotte 0-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
5
Lizotte
MacKinnon
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (299)
49.2% (1,266)
+4.3%
Power Play
0.0% (4)
54.9% (193)
-54.9%
Penalty Kill
38.6% (44)
49.1% (55)
-10.5%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +54.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Lizotte is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Lizotte shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Lizotte
MacKinnon
Home
52.0% (198)
50.9% (740)
Away
49.7% (149)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Lizotte
MacKinnon
P1
50.0%
50.9%
P2
50.9%
51.8%
P3
52.2%
47.1%
OT
0.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
60.9%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
51.0%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 02:31 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 08:02 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 06:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 14:03 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 02:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |