Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Lizotte wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 51.0% vs Paul 53.4% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lizotte 65.5%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 62.9%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 65.7%
Result
Blake Lizotte favored at 65.2%
65.2%
34.8%
Lizotte
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Lizotte
Paul
Last 5: Lizotte 1-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Lizotte
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Lizotte
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (707)
53.8% (753)
-1.3%
Power Play
46.2% (13)
58.9% (90)
-12.7%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (87)
47.4% (78)
-6.0%
On power play, Paul has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Lizotte is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Lizotte shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Paul
Home
51.4% (383)
54.2% (450)
Away
50.9% (424)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Lizotte
Paul
P1
48.8%
58.2%
P2
51.0%
50.6%
P3
53.5%
52.9%
Final 5 min
48.3%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
51.2%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 13:06 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2 | 19:41 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2 | 16:19 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |