Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.4% vs Paul 52.2% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Lizotte 50.8%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 55.4%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 54.8%
Result
Blake Lizotte favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Lizotte
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
9
(17 meetings)
8
9
Lizotte
Paul
Last 10: Lizotte 7-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Lizotte
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Lizotte
Paul
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lizotte
5
4
Lizotte
Paul
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (3,068)
52.5% (3,796)
-0.9%
Power Play
48.1% (81)
56.5% (480)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (437)
46.7% (574)
-4.4%
On power play, Paul has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Lizotte is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,373).
Lizotte shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Paul
Home
49.5% (1,840)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
51.4% (1,746)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Lizotte
Paul
P1
48.0%
53.9%
P2
52.3%
51.0%
P3
50.5%
52.0%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.2%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.4%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:17 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:15 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 19:36 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 11:14 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 06:12 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 2 | 06:54 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 1 | 10:59 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 13:06 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2 | 19:41 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2 | 16:19 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 3 | 16:50 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Mar 11, 2020 | 3 | 16:09 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 11, 2020 | 3 | 14:18 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 2 | 11:52 | Offensive | Nick Paul |