Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lizotte wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 51.0% vs Sturm 55.2% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Lizotte 84.0%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 62.9%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 68.3%
Result
Blake Lizotte favored at 76.1%
76.1%
23.9%
Lizotte
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Lizotte
Sturm
Last 10: Lizotte 2-8 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
4
Lizotte
Sturm
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Lizotte
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Lizotte
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (707)
56.1% (716)
-3.6%
Power Play
46.2% (13)
67.7% (31)
-21.5%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (87)
51.1% (133)
-9.7%
On power play, Sturm has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Lizotte is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Lizotte shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Sturm
Home
51.4% (383)
55.6% (412)
Away
50.9% (424)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Lizotte
Sturm
P1
48.8%
59.6%
P2
51.0%
52.0%
P3
53.5%
55.5%
Final 5 min
48.3%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
60.0%▲
55.0%
51.2%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2023 | 2 | 04:51 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 2 | 01:20 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 19:54 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 16:06 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 03:48 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 06:04 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 07:50 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 04:20 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 01:19 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |