Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.4% vs Sturm 56.1% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 15-5 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Lizotte 81.2%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 82.0%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 78.7%
Result
Blake Lizotte favored at 80.6%
80.6%
19.4%
Lizotte
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
15
(20 meetings)
5
15
Lizotte
Sturm
Last 10: Lizotte 1-9 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
7
Lizotte
Sturm
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Lizotte
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
5
Lizotte
Sturm
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (3,068)
57.1% (2,719)
-5.5%
Power Play
48.1% (81)
61.3% (62)
-13.2%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (437)
51.0% (498)
-8.7%
On power play, Sturm has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Lizotte is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,373).
Lizotte shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Sturm
Home
49.5% (1,840)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
51.4% (1,746)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Lizotte
Sturm
P1
48.0%
56.5%
P2
52.3%
54.9%
P3
50.5%
57.4%
OT
75.0%
60.6%
Final 5 min
50.2%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 08:53 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 2 | 04:51 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 2 | 01:20 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 19:54 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 16:06 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 03:48 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 06:04 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 07:50 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 04:20 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 01:19 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Apr 13, 2022 | 3 | 06:45 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Apr 13, 2022 | 3 | 01:38 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Apr 13, 2022 | 3 | 01:18 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 13, 2022 | 2 | 13:05 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 13, 2022 | 2 | 01:43 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 13, 2022 | 1 | 14:40 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 02:18 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 23, 2021 | 3 | 19:50 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Apr 23, 2021 | 2 | 11:45 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |