Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Lizotte wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.8% vs Thomas 54.5% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 70.1%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 72.3%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 58.8%
Result
Blake Lizotte favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Lizotte
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Lizotte
Thomas
Last 9: Lizotte 4-5 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
4
Lizotte
Thomas
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
3
0
Lizotte
Thomas
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Lizotte
Thomas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (299)
55.3% (990)
-1.8%
Power Play
0.0% (4)
54.2% (190)
-54.2%
Penalty Kill
38.6% (44)
52.5% (158)
-13.9%
On power play, Thomas has a +54.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Lizotte is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Lizotte shoots left. Thomas is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (994).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Thomas
Home
52.0% (198)
55.1% (690)
Away
49.7% (149)
54.5% (648)
By Period
Lizotte
Thomas
P1
50.0%
55.5%
P2
50.9%
56.4%
P3
52.2%
51.5%
OT
0.0%
69.0%
Final 5 min
60.9%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
51.0%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 05:56 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 15:00 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 06:48 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 08:19 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 14:30 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:05 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 10:15 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 03:02 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:12 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |