Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.9% vs 57.2%). Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Horvat wins 62.2% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 56.5% vs Pageau 56.7% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horvat 68.6%
Defensive zone
Pageau 68.9%
Neutral zone
Pageau 57.8%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Horvat
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Horvat
Pageau
Last 5: Horvat 3-2 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
2
0
Horvat
Pageau
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
2
Horvat
Pageau
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
54.7% (1,126)
58.8% (889)
-4.1%
Power Play
67.0% (342)
58.2% (182)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (217)
48.6% (185)
+3.5%
On power play, Horvat has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Horvat is 62.2% vs right-shot opponents (574).
Horvat shoots left. Pageau is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Home / Away
Horvat
Pageau
Home
59.8% (853)
59.0% (595)
Away
53.8% (832)
55.7% (661)
By Period
Horvat
Pageau
P1
55.0%
58.9%
P2
58.3%
57.9%
P3
57.8%
55.6%
OT
44.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
59.4%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
56.9%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
57.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 16:20 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 18:29 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 09:25 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 07:12 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 15:25 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |