Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 53.7% vs Tavares 58.7% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Horvat leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 69.4%
Defensive zone
Tavares 61.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 65.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 65.0%
35.0%
65.0%
Horvat
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Horvat
Tavares
Last 10: Horvat 6-4 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
2
1
Horvat
Tavares
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
3
1
Horvat
Tavares
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Horvat
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (1,071)
59.2% (1,035)
-5.7%
Power Play
56.3% (272)
60.0% (310)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
51.3% (76)
42.9% (7)
+8.4%
On penalty kill, Horvat has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Horvat is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (888).
Horvat shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Horvat
Tavares
Home
54.2% (714)
57.5% (668)
Away
53.6% (705)
61.1% (684)
By Period
Horvat
Tavares
P1
53.5%
58.0%
P2
56.3%
60.1%
P3
53.5%
61.0%
OT
28.6%
27.8%
Final 5 min
52.3%
60.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
53.9%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2024 | 2 | 11:34 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 1 | 18:21 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 15:49 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 08:12 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 03:35 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:26 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:53 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:40 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:32 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 2 | 00:24 | Neutral | John Tavares |