Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Horvat wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 55.4% vs Tavares 57.2% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 56.7%
Defensive zone
Horvat 53.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 58.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Horvat
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Horvat
Tavares
Last 10: Horvat 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
3
Horvat
Tavares
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
2
1
Horvat
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Horvat
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (682)
58.0% (914)
-2.7%
Power Play
62.2% (230)
57.0% (235)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (101)
57.9% (19)
-11.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Horvat is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (600).
Horvat shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Home / Away
Horvat
Tavares
Home
58.2% (469)
57.8% (614)
Away
54.0% (544)
57.8% (554)
By Period
Horvat
Tavares
P1
59.6%
58.0%
P2
53.1%
56.9%
P3
55.5%
58.4%
OT
55.0%
57.7%
Final 5 min
59.6%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
56.0%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 08:44 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 05:30 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 05:24 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 14:57 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 10:53 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 10:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 07:25 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 19:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 09:59 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 09:43 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:36 | Neutral | John Tavares |