Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (58.2% vs 58.3%). Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Horvat wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 57.6% vs Tavares 57.7% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 51.4%
Defensive zone
Tavares 56.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 57.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Horvat
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Horvat
Tavares
Last 9: Horvat 4-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Horvat
Tavares
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
4
Horvat
Tavares
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horvat
1
0
Horvat
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (987)
57.7% (998)
+0.9%
Power Play
60.6% (251)
60.5% (271)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
45.7% (81)
56.4% (39)
-10.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Horvat is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Horvat shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Home / Away
Horvat
Tavares
Home
59.2% (684)
59.7% (610)
Away
57.0% (635)
57.0% (698)
By Period
Horvat
Tavares
P1
57.9%
57.2%
P2
55.4%
58.5%
P3
61.5%
59.4%
OT
53.8%
46.7%
Final 5 min
60.9%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
58.2%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:37 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 01:24 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 13:59 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 02:16 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 18:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 05:02 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 05:43 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 03:25 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 03:08 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |