Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Horvat wins 55.7% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 53.7% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horvat 83.6%
Defensive zone
Horvat 57.8%
Neutral zone
Horvat 80.4%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 78.8%
78.8%
21.2%
Horvat
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Horvat
MacKinnon
Last 8: Horvat 5-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Horvat
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
1
0
Horvat
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horvat
3
1
Horvat
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (1,071)
45.5% (1,190)
+8.0%
Power Play
56.3% (272)
56.4% (94)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
51.3% (76)
40.0% (30)
+11.3%
On penalty kill, Horvat has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Horvat is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (531).
Horvat shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Horvat
MacKinnon
Home
54.2% (714)
47.8% (670)
Away
53.6% (705)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Horvat
MacKinnon
P1
53.5%
45.3%
P2
56.3%
48.5%
P3
53.5%
45.0%
OT
28.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.3%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
53.9%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 18:05 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 10:18 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 17:40 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 17:35 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 00:56 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 04:42 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 02:03 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |