Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Horvat wins 57.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 55.4% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Horvat leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Horvat 53.0%
Defensive zone
Horvat 80.7%
Neutral zone
Horvat 69.5%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 69.6%
69.6%
30.4%
Horvat
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
6
(19 meetings)
13
6
Horvat
MacKinnon
Last 10: Horvat 7-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
4
2
Horvat
MacKinnon
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
5
4
Horvat
MacKinnon
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horvat
4
0
Horvat
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (682)
50.0% (992)
+5.3%
Power Play
62.2% (230)
64.9% (148)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (101)
34.4% (32)
+12.1%
On penalty kill, Horvat has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Horvat is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (413).
Horvat shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Horvat
MacKinnon
Home
58.2% (469)
53.3% (591)
Away
54.0% (544)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Horvat
MacKinnon
P1
59.6%
49.9%
P2
53.1%
53.2%
P3
55.5%
50.8%
OT
55.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
59.6%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
56.0%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:30 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:22 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:06 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 05:56 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:45 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:02 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 11:06 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:47 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:20 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:57 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 09:13 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:49 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:34 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:55 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 11:15 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 06:17 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:39 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |