Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.9% vs 54.3%). Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 53.7% vs Paul 53.9% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horvat 59.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 55.3%
Neutral zone
Horvat 51.9%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Horvat
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Horvat
Paul
Last 6: Horvat 3-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
1
0
Horvat
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Horvat
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Horvat
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (1,071)
53.1% (710)
+0.4%
Power Play
56.3% (272)
57.3% (199)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
51.3% (76)
58.0% (69)
-6.7%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Horvat is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (888).
Horvat shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Horvat
Paul
Home
54.2% (714)
56.0% (466)
Away
53.6% (705)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Horvat
Paul
P1
53.5%
57.2%
P2
56.3%
54.9%
P3
53.5%
51.5%
OT
28.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.3%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
53.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 15:22 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 06:05 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 05:58 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 01:14 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |