Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 53.7% vs Sturm 59.0% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horvat 66.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 85.5%
Neutral zone
Sturm 59.7%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Horvat
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Horvat
Sturm
Last 5: Horvat 3-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
3
0
Horvat
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Horvat
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (1,071)
60.6% (708)
-7.1%
Power Play
56.3% (272)
61.1% (18)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
51.3% (76)
56.4% (101)
-5.1%
On even strength, Sturm has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Horvat is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (888).
Horvat shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Home / Away
Horvat
Sturm
Home
54.2% (714)
61.6% (451)
Away
53.6% (705)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Horvat
Sturm
P1
53.5%
55.9%
P2
56.3%
58.9%
P3
53.5%
64.6%
OT
28.6%
70.6%
Final 5 min
52.3%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
53.9%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 10:52 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 05:18 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 12:02 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 19:56 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |