Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.0% vs 55.7%). Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Horvat wins 57.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 55.4% vs Stamkos 54.6% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 53.2%
Defensive zone
Horvat 64.8%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 55.0%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Horvat
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Horvat
Stamkos
Last 6: Horvat 2-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Horvat
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
2
3
Horvat
Stamkos
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (682)
56.1% (342)
-0.8%
Power Play
62.2% (230)
53.3% (92)
+8.9%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (101)
62.5% (8)
-16.0%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Horvat is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (413).
Horvat shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Horvat
Stamkos
Home
58.2% (469)
53.4% (208)
Away
54.0% (544)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Horvat
Stamkos
P1
59.6%
55.6%
P2
53.1%
52.8%
P3
55.5%
59.1%
OT
55.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
59.6%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
56.0%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 18:10 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:27 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 12:53 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 09:59 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |