Scouting Report
Boone Jenner holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 19 meetings). Jenner wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 53.9% vs McDavid 47.8% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 22-19 in 41 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 67.5%
Defensive zone
Jenner 50.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 60.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 60.6%
39.4%
60.6%
Jenner
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
22
(41 meetings)
19
22
Jenner
McDavid
Last 10: Jenner 5-5 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
6
13
Jenner
McDavid
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
8
4
Jenner
McDavid
12 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Jenner
McDavid
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (6,190)
47.7% (8,358)
+6.8%
Power Play
55.8% (1,147)
52.0% (371)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (998)
43.4% (279)
+5.0%
On even strength, Jenner has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Jenner is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,180).
Jenner shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
Home / Away
Jenner
McDavid
Home
54.5% (4,051)
49.3% (4,570)
Away
53.4% (4,284)
46.1% (4,438)
By Period
Jenner
McDavid
P1
53.7%
46.5%
P2
53.5%
48.7%
P3
54.4%
48.3%
OT
54.5%
40.9%
Final 5 min
52.2%
50.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
53.9%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 16:15 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 10:57 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:46 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 15:52 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 01:12 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 04:52 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 08:54 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 04:12 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 04:02 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 03:37 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 17:04 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 09:01 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 06:50 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 04:54 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 3 | 09:57 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 3 | 09:51 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 3 | 06:42 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 1 | 12:25 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 1 | 12:20 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |