Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.6% vs 53.7%). Jenner wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 53.3% vs McDavid 53.4% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 60.7%
Defensive zone
Jenner 55.7%
Neutral zone
Jenner 54.8%
Result
Boone Jenner favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Jenner
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Jenner
McDavid
Last 5: Jenner 3-2 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
1
0
Jenner
McDavid
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
2
0
Jenner
McDavid
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
2
Jenner
McDavid
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (851)
54.3% (1,002)
-0.2%
Power Play
54.0% (202)
44.8% (29)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
50.3% (145)
33.3% (15)
+17.0%
On penalty kill, Jenner has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Jenner is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Jenner shoots left. McDavid is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (679).
Home / Away
Jenner
McDavid
Home
53.2% (609)
53.6% (507)
Away
54.0% (589)
53.8% (539)
By Period
Jenner
McDavid
P1
49.7%
52.6%
P2
53.6%
54.1%
P3
56.5%
54.9%
OT
65.2%
44.4%
Final 5 min
52.2%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
53.6%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 06:28 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 17:55 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 10:26 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 07:20 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |