Scouting Report
Boone Jenner holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 53.9% vs McDavid 51.0% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 59.6%
Defensive zone
Jenner 50.0%
Neutral zone
McDavid 54.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Jenner
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Jenner
McDavid
Last 10: Jenner 5-5 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
4
Jenner
McDavid
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
2
Jenner
McDavid
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jenner
3
0
Jenner
McDavid
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (775)
51.6% (803)
+2.9%
Power Play
59.1% (198)
50.0% (40)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (140)
36.4% (22)
+10.0%
On penalty kill, Jenner has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Jenner is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (666).
Jenner shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
Home / Away
Jenner
McDavid
Home
52.9% (512)
51.8% (415)
Away
55.4% (601)
50.4% (450)
By Period
Jenner
McDavid
P1
55.0%
47.5%
P2
54.5%
51.6%
P3
53.6%
55.5%
OT
52.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.5%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
54.3%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 16:15 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 10:57 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:46 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 15:52 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 01:12 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 04:52 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 08:54 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 04:12 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 04:02 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 03:37 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |